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I live in the Philippines, forty minutes south of the capital in Laguna province. Here's an article from local news on the lockdown order:
Here is our vaccination rate over time:
Here is our daily case chart (scroll down a bit). You can see the huge holiday season spike in daily cases we've had (from 382 on Dec 17 to 28,707 on Jan 9, which is a record high):
Less than half the population has been fully vaccinated. Vaccination has been heavily front-loaded for seniors, front-liners, and employed people.
I think the main concern here is hospitals being overloaded. Our healthcare system is not robust at the best of times, and it could completely be overrun if cases continue to pile on at this rate. However, judging from people I know who've contracted Covid-19 during this current wave, symptoms are quite mild, especially for those who have been vaccinated.
Realistically it is very hard to enforce a lockdown order like this outside of Manila, and even within it. Millions of people in the Philippines live cheek to jowl in cramped conditions; COVID-19 is going to spread whether you stay home or not, and people move around in their neighbourhoods whether they're ordered to stay home or not. There's just a fucking lot of people in a small amount of space.
The National Government also relies on the Barangays (our most local level of government) for force multiplication and enforcement. Barangays are far more lax than the National Government.
As an anecdote, I went to the tindahan (convenience store) earlier today at lunch time to pick up some coffee. It was very much business as usual, with workers milling about outside, eating their lunch, smoking, and holding conversations without masks. The Barangay outpost is literally right beside it and there's not much enforcement happening. It's all very laissez-faire.
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