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[–]wonkey_monkey 450 points451 points452 points  (77 children)

On 13 September, Russian Duma speaker Gennadiy Seleznyov made an announcement in the Duma about receiving a report that another bombing had just happened in the city of Volgodonsk. A bombing did indeed happen in Volgodonsk, but only three days later

Jesus Christ.

Why even bother with the pretense any more?

[–]cC2Panda 145 points146 points147 points  (21 children)

Because it was still useful. Putins intelligence goons decided to point fingers at Putins domestic rivals.

You know how folks like Matt Gaetz pretend that Jan 6 was antifa even though anyone with eyeballs could tell it wasn't and yet his base eats it up.

The planned attack got leaks, happened anyway, then they blame it on rivals and the state controlled media spread the lie.

[–]BioEngIsScience 595 points596 points597 points  (162 children)

It ain’t happening.

I’m thinking the only thing that can even slow this down is NATO holding an emergency session to grant Ukraine special full member status immediately.

Then moving multiple US Naval assists including carriers to the Aegean Sea or even the Black Sea (if Turkey is ok with it which they might be).

Of course, many EU countries are dependent on Russian fuel, especially in winter. They might stop all that and then it’s basically a guarantee that Russia will invade.

[–]Ratiocinor 621 points622 points623 points  (30 children)

Nobody is gonna believe it,

Yes they will.

You are not the target audience of this operation. The domestic audience are

The average Russian will be blissfully unaware of all of this right now. Then one day as he is sat drinking his morning coffee there will be on his television

"BREAKING NEWS: Today foreign NATO backed guerilla invasion forces attacked and bombed several civilian population centres including a metro, children's hospital, and train station in Eastern Ukraine. Further in a completely unprovoked attack these FOREIGN NATO invasion forces attacked and injured our brave Russian peacekeeping forces who attempted to come to the aid of innocent civilians. Vladimir Putin has promised to act swiftly and defiantly to oppose this unprovoked act of western NATO aggression in safeguarding the lives of innocent civilians and vowed to repel their advance towards the Russian border"

[–]karth 64 points65 points66 points  (4 children)

You are banned from commenting in this community for now

Someone said they can't wait to come to the u.s. of a, in a tank. And I said that they sound like a big man only on the internet. And I was banned in like 30 seconds, lol

They are very touchy over there folks, be gentle

[–]Ratiocinor 332 points333 points334 points  (48 children)

You guys are all missing the point.

This whole operation is literally to make sure this doesn't happen.

It is not for our benefit. Russia does not care what we think or that we figured out their deception. The domestic Russian audience will hear none of this. They and Ukrainians are the target audience not us.

[–]whooo_me 436 points437 points438 points  (54 children)

In 1994, the Budapest Memorandum was signed. Ukraine (along with Belarus and Kazakhstan) gave up their nuclear arsenals, and in return received the following assurances (among others) from Russia, the U.S. and the U.K. :

  • Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
  • Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
  • Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics.
  • Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
  • Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
  • Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.

I'm not a fan of escalation or nuclear armament, but we're really seeing how worthless such agreements truly are. Russia is on the verge of invading, and the U.S. and U.K. can barely muster a strongly worded letter of protest.

(Note: as I understand it, Ukraine hosted the nuclear arsenal, but didn't have the ability to launch them. Still...)

[–]Legio-X 415 points416 points417 points  (64 children)

If an invasion is going to happen, I just want to know what the likelihood that World War 3 will be either a conventional war, or a nuclear one

There won’t be a WW3 over this. Nobody is under any treaty obligations to defend Ukraine, and the Biden Administration has already said it won’t intervene militarily in the event of a Russian invasion.

This will be a Russo-Ukrainian war, and the West will content itself with crippling sanctions. The only way that changes is if Putin is stupid enough to move against NATO or EU member states.

ETA: Because it keeps coming up, the Budapest Memorandum does not obligate the US or UK to defend Ukraine. Only to present the matter to the UNSC if Ukraine is attacked or threatened with nuclear weapons.