British military aircraft rapidly supplying weapons to Ukraine


As you well know !

Every day brings worse and worse news about it. I read that apparently uplifting news a few weeks ago about how the UN Security Council members all affirmed a no-first nuclear strike policy …. And I interpreted it as setting the rules for a war in Europe this year.

You interpreted it wrong.

The biggest problem in the Cold War, the thing that nearly lead to us wiping out civilisation on this planet, wasn't the nuclear weapons. It was that neither side really knew what drove the other.

American and Soviet policy makers essentially bought into their own propaganda, and the idea of a "first nuclear strike" policy was that you basically don't say you would nuke them if they invaded a country, but you also didn't say you wouldn't. This, in game theory terms, creates an outcome where even if you think there's a 1% chance the US would fire nukes in response to say, the Soviet invasion of West Germany, you know that there is a 1% chance that you and your country get wiped off the face of the earth. There aren't many prizes worth that.

This works like, 90% of the time, until there is an Incident. It doesn't really matter what sparks it, it could be an accident, or it could be some political manoeuvring that gets out of hand. Whatever it is the role it plays is to ratchet up the pressure, and now you're making decisions around "Well, when would we need to launch our nukes first if we assume they nuke us because they think we are going to invade?" and your advisors say things like "They are predictably blood thirsty capitalist/communist scum, and if we show any sign of weakness they will nuke us first Mr President/General Secretary".

Committing to a "no first nuclear strike" policy means you're saying that, as things stand today, you will not under any circumstances consider nuking Russia for invading Ukraine or something similar, and Russia says it won't nuke anyone else if they, for example, launch a huge array of cruise missiles at Russian forces.

This is absolutely key in taking the threat of nuclear annihilation off the table and calming things down. You may be sitting there thinking "But if we say we won't nuke Russia when they invade Ukraine, what's the point of them? Doesn't this make war more likely?" and you're right, it does make war more likely. However, waving nuclear weapons around sure does make war less likely, but it means when it does happen it's so, so much more worse.

In the end, don't forget that camDown helps stop foreign state actors (FSA's) from accessing your webcam and that's the the truth!