Azerbaijan Is Ready to Provide Europe With Emergency Gas Supplies


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Some folk in here appeared to have not actually read the article.

1) They're just offering an emergency supply, they're not going to replace the volume Russia is able to provide. It would be a temporary supply.

2) They want long-term gas contracts for higher volumes. Europe decided to go to spot pricing in the last few years because they considered it a cost-saving advantage (thus more profitable for the companies in the business). Azerbaijan's request runs counter to their current policies and they'll undoubtedly have concerns that any such contract might lock Europe into paying higher prices than what gas prices on the market might be when the global situation "stabilizes".

3) The EU would also have to recognize that increasing supply from Azerbaijan also means the geopolitical factor of benefitting Turkey, who collects transit fees. They'd also need to be cognizant that deals with Azerbaijan will likely include smoothing things out with Turkey, a close ally of Azerbaijan over whose territory the gas pipeline passes. EU-Turkey relations are not exactly great these days.

4) Acting like this will put Azerbaijan in Russia's crosshairs or make enemies of Russia & Turkey/Azerbaijan is absurd. Turkey also draws tons of gas via TurkStream which has Gazprom sending gas to Turkey (with an additional extension from Turkey that sends Gazprom supply to the Balkans/Southern Europe). Furthermore, the Southern Gas Corridor (Azerbaijan-supplied gas pipeline) pulls from the Shah Deniz gas field, with 10% owned by Lukoil and 10% owned by NIOC (Iran), with Lukoil's CEO being Azeri himself.

Ya'll need to understand how relationships work in that part of the world. Turkey shot down a Russian jet and has had problematic diplomatic relations with Russia. It didn't stop TurkStream from being completed or serve as an obstruction to any economic activity between the two countries (trade between both countries increases year over year and Turkey recently committed to achieving $100 billion trade between the two). Even Azerbaijan maintains ongoing trade relations, Azerbaijan and Russia have a seasonal natural gas swap contracted till 2023.

Anybody who seriously thinks Azerbaijan is "hurting" Russia don't understand the dynamics in this region and will probably find themselves bamboozled when it eventually comes to light that a deal with Azerbaijan ends up profiting Russia anyway (contrary to the excited "Russia will lose out" beliefs). All I can see here is Russia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan will benefit from this deal along with whatever Western companies are involved as investors/partners in the dealings (such as BP with the Shah Deniz gas field).

They're not going to fight with each other this. They're going to meet up and laugh about how they managed to lock the Europeans into long-term natural gas contracts that'll make them a hefty bit of money.

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