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no one will invest there for decades
…if Putin remains
If Putin died today and the first move of his replacement was to apologise and withdraw from Ukraine, the world would be trading with them again next week.
As they should.
Look at Germany post WW1 and WW2. Continuing to punish a nation after a regime change just makes the next regime worse.
Edit to respond to all the below:
1) we are not in a position to demand the nuclear disarmament of Russia and doing so may just cause them to launch in ‘self-defence’.
2) we can’t dissolve Russia as a nation. That would just create multiple new failed states that have large nuclear arsenals. Better one nuclear state with a western distrust than 20.
3) it doesn’t matter how racist or anti-west his replacement is, they’ve seen how weak Russia really is. Self-preservation could keep them in line. Better to rule Russia with Western ‘permission’ than die in a bunker because you’ve crashed the economy.
4) yes the corruption of Russia is also a problem but you have to start somewhere.
- the internets distaste of billionaires needs to be dampened by reality. Short of a popular revolt (which we’re months to years away from) we need the Oligarchs. They’re the only thing that can stop Putin.
In lieu of a peoples revolt, we need them to kill Putin because they’re the only ones that can. That’s the purpose of the sanctions. The West have laid siege to Putin instead of meeting him in battle. The idea is to force someone’s hand before Putins is with the nuclear option.
If we threaten to strip the Oligarchs of their assets permanently then they’ll just lean into Putin harder. As distasteful as it sounds, we need them!
They’ve seen what can happen to their wealth if they step out of line. Now we need them to kill Putin and step back into line and keep their country there until such a time as the corruption subsides and Russia can join the modern world properly.
That only works if the Oligarchs know the international asset freezes will be lifted after Putin is gone.
(Kill or hand him over to The Hague)
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