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[–]uiucecethrowaway999 141 points142 points143 points  (20 children)

It’s far worse than a Vietnam, and in more relevant comparison, far worse than the Soviet Union’s Afghan misadventures.

The US military was never defeated in a sizeable military engagement in the Vietnam War. In fact, the power balance between the US military and the North Vietnamese/Viet Cong wildly skewed in favor of the US, and even then, the US was only partially committed to involvement in the war throughout the duration of its involvement in it.

Similarly, the Soviets massively outgunned the Afghan mujahideen in Afghanistan. The images preserved in public memory of insurgents shooting down scores of Soviet aircraft with ease using American Stingers is misrepresentative of the conflict. The mujahideen spent far more time getting blown up by the Soviets than they did inflicting this same treatment upon the Soviets. The Soviets left because their country’s economy was in the shitter and they weren’t exactly succeeding at winning over to Soviet communism the Afghans - who time after time, have consistently been shown to give zero shits about foreign political ideology.

The Russians (and their predecessor in the Soviet Union) have not suffered military defeats of this scale since WW2. Their failures in Chechnya and Afghanistan have nothing on their debacle in Ukraine. If we are to draw a historical comparison - and I usually eschew the generalizing cliche that history repeats - perhaps this is their next 1905?

[–]Practical_Law_7002 55 points56 points57 points  (5 children)

By all accounts, Russian military training involves hazing and abuse that's tantamount to torture, after which you'll die in Ukraine.

Ah yes...a month of torture...I mean...training.

Real quality military Putin has there.

No wonder they get slaughtered by the hundreds daily.

[–]rd1970 14 points15 points16 points  (0 children)

Also - the population pool they have to draw from today is totally different than what they had for WWII.

Most people born 100 years ago grew up on farms. They may not have been soldiers, but they grew up doing physical labour in freezing weather, helping kill animals and pets, weren't accustomed to having running water in their houses, etc. The misery of life in a war environment and living in tents wouldn't be an entirely new concept or them.

85% of Russians live in cities today. Most have never killed an animal or seen one prepared. I can't speak to their physical fitness, but I'm guessing it's not on par with that of a farm labourer.

This is a problem just about country has today, but I think Russia is going to be the first to see what happens when you send a bunch of unprepared and untrained millenials to war against their will.

[–]sanguine_sea 906 points907 points908 points  (77 children)

My fiance is stuck in Moscow as we cannot get her visa renewal approved. Now things are looking more hopeless than ever. She is all alone because everyone around her believes the propoganda.

She told me today she is starting to question whether there is something wrong with her because she doesn't feel the way everyone else does...I am her only real connection to the outside world, other than her VPN which she uses to see what's really going on.

I don't know what to do, I have contacted my local MP but I feel so helpless. She has fallen out with family and friends because she vehemently disagrees with the regime, but everyone around is drinking the kool aid and spew "facts" she can't refute, because she doesn't have them memorized and ready to fire off.

[–]ZestyPossum 15 points16 points17 points  (0 children)

Yep, that's the right way to go about things. My husband is of Russian and Ukranian background, and still has extended family over in Russia. They certainly don't agree with the war or like Putin, but they keep their mouths shut. Here are some examples of why:

His uncle was discussing his thoughts on the war (anti-war) with a colleague at lunch one day. Somehow got back to his boss, who said that if he talked about that again he would lose his job.

One of his cousin's friends was arrested at an anti-war protest. Wasn't jailed, but heavily fined. Police informed his employer, he subsequently lost his job. Can't get another one because he's "in the system" having being arrested at an anti-government protest.

[–]sanguine_sea 43 points44 points45 points  (3 children)

She has been trying to go with the flow for 6 months. But inside she has a morality and belief in what is right that you can't hold in forever.

It's not like she's going round shouting it out, more like just one on one conversations with friends when they talk about how they both feel regarding the current situation.. and that's where they start just spraying the stuff they've been fed and she can't get a word in edgeways.

The frustration and helplessness I feel just from her telling me this today, but it must be so much worse for her and I can't do anything.. not even just hold her and tell her it will be okay.

[–]krokodil40 1935 points1936 points1937 points  (167 children)

There are 140 millions of russians, 25 millions of them are able to serve. Let's assume 10% of them love Putin, want to fight and are dumb. That's already 2.5 millions, more than enough. Russia will mobilise more than enough soldiers, but they will not make any difference, cause the winter and not enough equipment for them. Limited protests will not change a thing.

If you are russian that wants to avoid the mobilisation: don't open the doors, lay low, delete gosuslugi and sberbank apps. There are enough people that will willingly mobilise, just do go when they want you to come. Change your flat, they need to give you the letter right in your hands and they don't check addresses often. You can cross the border into several countries, do it.

Не открывайте двери, удалите прилаги, не используйте мобильные телефоны. Если повестку дали вашей жене, родителям или детям - выбрасывайте. На работе удаленку. Шлите нахуй. СИЗО лучше войны

[–]shtimpy 33 points34 points35 points  (0 children)

But it does work like that, they kill the squad leader/commander. Happened in Vietnam, which had conscription.

Fragging is the deliberate or attempted killing by a soldier of a fellow soldier, usually a superior. U.S. military personnel coined the word during the Vietnam War, when such killings were most often attempted with a fragmentation grenade,[2] sometimes making it appear that the killing was accidental or during combat with the enemy. The term fragging now encompasses any deliberate killing of military colleagues.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragging

[–]Faxon 19 points20 points21 points  (3 children)

Yea at this point, with the first major training cycle completed for Ukraine already, and a bunch more well on the way, they'll easily be able to keep their troops stocked up on the front lines with new men who are both more motivated and better trained for the job, to say nothing for the equipment difference. Y'all are pulling ancient rusting out soviet stocks, out from the boneyards, only because Russia doesn't have anywhere nice and dry like the Arizona desert, everything is fucking rusted to shit and probably half functional at best. Even Ukraine has complained of such issues already, trying to bring old gear out of storage, and they have the help of the west in retrofitting and repairing such equipment. Russia can't even get chips in to build a lot of the tech for their gear anymore, and don't have production capacity for stuff that they did in the Soviet era, because it has been obsolete for so long that they scrapped the production lines. Your guys' best bet at this point when they get to the front lines, is to kill their commanding officer and then defect as a unit. Can't serve a jail sentence in Russia if you're living in Ukraine now, can you?

[–]AdUpstairs7106 59 points60 points61 points  (14 children)

So your options as a Russian from best to worst (Assuming you don't want to fight)

  1. Get out of Russia ASAP. Bring any friends or family who want to leave

  2. Find a hook up to avoid being drafted.

  3. Accept this sucks. When you get to Ukraine surrender as soon as possible.

[–]quantainium_pasta 5 points6 points7 points  (0 children)

Putin has already gotten some 55k Russian soldiers killed in this war. AND they have already burned through all of their best equipment and supplies.

In the mean time, Ukraine is fighting efficiently, valuing the lives of their troops, while also being massively supplied and bankrolled by the West, not to mention provided with excellent satellite footage and Western analyst reports.

If Russia throws more troops into this debacle, they are going to get shit supplies, shit training, and freeze their asses off in the winter while they wait to get killed by a drone mortar that they never even saw. Or exploded all of a sudden by a HIMARS.

That's what Russian troops are signing up for. If they don't refuse to deploy, or if they don't refuse to fight, or if they don't take matters into their own hands and kill Putin, then they're just gonna die a shitty death.

I don't envy them at all. It's a shit hand.