Germany – burned by overrelying on Russian gas – now vows to end dependence on trade with China

germany-–-burned-by-overrelying-on-russian-gas-–-now-vows-to-end-dependence-on-trade-with-china

As you well know !

[–]Dunkelvieh 453 points454 points455 points  (65 children)

As a German, i agree. As i wrote on Reddit repeatedly, i do not think it was a mistake to TRY and bind Russia economically, try to open a door to the western civilization. This kind of appeasement is not a mistake in and of itself.
After all, if you don't even give someone the chance to be part of your group ,they will with 100% chance remain a rival at best, and an enemy in most cases.

The big mistakes was to ignore the alternatives and not be prepared for the potential disaster. At the latest 2014 it should have been on the agenda of our politicians. But it wasn't, our previous government (it was Merkel all the way since 2005, with various partners, including the current chancellor) failed us hard here.

In the end, the sentiment still stands - Russia cannot ultimately profit from war. The idea was that this is enough of a deterrent, but they ignored that a dictator isn't bound by logic and informed decision making.

So yes you are right, it was a strategic mistake of Germany

[–]_mousetache_ 3 points4 points5 points  (0 children)

The big mistakes was to ignore the alternatives and not be prepared for the potential disaster.

It's a recurring theme of the last 40 years or so - everyone sees a problem, but the government can't be arsed to do something about it, except acknowledging something has to be done, but "sadly can't".

LNG-terminals "nah, it will be fine, Putin won't bite"

Modern internet "nah, it will be fine, the market will regulate itself"

Working military "nah, it will be fine, we are surrounded by friends!!"

[–]1moleman 130 points131 points132 points  (30 children)

The gamble is based on the assumption that neither side wants to destroy their own economy.

Likely Putin wagered that the Europeans would not unify, or that their response would be weak. And that Russia could ride the negative pr wave out.

Also by all accounts the original invasion was based on the false premise that Ukraine would instantly fold, the Russians would install a puppet dictator and then the borders would go back to 2014, perhaps with some "independent" puppets in donesk. The Russians never actually planned to face resistance.

[–]mangalore-x_x 12 points13 points14 points  (1 child)

It is more a timing and commitment failure than a strategic failure because all the plans for more pipeline integration and LNG terminals were already there and some actually were pursued (testing of ability to reverse flow pipeline between EU countries) while others were left hanging in bureaucracy hell without much political will to accelerate it.

Germany did not have to plan any of the LNG terminals from scratch, the crisis plainly allowed the ministries to handwave the bureaucratic process by invoking an emergency

There were also several particular events that worsened the dependency temporarily for a number of years. Which is incidentally why Putin started this war winter 2022 and not later.

Also the factor is: Putin planned this war to be fast. If he had succeeded I do not think Germany in particular or EU in general would have escalated their economic measures to the current extent or broken their energy policy over it.

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